Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.1 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.1 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A2.01%49.8 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B2.01%49.8 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 hMercury / Terminus (Caches)CachesRot. C15.10%6.6 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Mercury / Neruda (Caches)CachesRot. C15.10%6.6 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Venus / Ishtar (Caches)CachesRot. C15.10%6.6 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Mars / Gradivus (Caches)CachesRot. C15.10%6.6 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Mercury / Terminus (Caches)CachesRot. C5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Mercury / Neruda (Caches)CachesRot. C5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Venus / Ishtar (Caches)CachesRot. C5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Mars / Gradivus (Caches)CachesRot. C5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Team AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro ArenaConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro Arena (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Neptune / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.