Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / Desdemona (Caches)CachesRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90%Uranus / Prospero (Caches)CachesRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90%Uranus / Setebos (Caches)CachesRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90%Lua / Plato (Caches)CachesRot. A12.91%7.7 expected runs · 17 runs for 90%Mercury / Terminus (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Mercury / Neruda (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Venus / Ishtar (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Mars / Gradivus (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Jupiter / Adrastea (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Jupiter / Carpo (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Pallene (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Calypso (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Team AnnihilationConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 20% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.