Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C25.00%4.0 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C13.24%7.6 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hEris / Candiru (Caches)CachesRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Eris / Lepis (Caches)CachesRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Eris / Psoro (Caches)CachesRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Eris / Viver (Caches)CachesRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Eris / Naeglar (Caches)CachesRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Deimos / Formido (Caches)CachesRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Team AnnihilationConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / AnnihilationConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro ArenaConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro Arena (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant AnnihilationConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Neptune / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.