Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A10.42%9.6 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A4.03%24.8 expected runs · 56 runs for 90% · ≈ 6.5 hSaturn / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Team AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro ArenaConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro Arena (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Neptune / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.