Confidence
Direct sources
Mercury / Terminus (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Mercury / Neruda (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Venus / Ishtar (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Mars / Gradivus (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Team AnnihilationConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / AnnihilationConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro ArenaConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro Arena (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant AnnihilationConclaveRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 12.65% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.