Confidence
Direct sources
Deimos / Formido (Caches)CachesRot. C19.36%5.2 expected runs · 11 runs for 90%Lua / Plato (Caches)CachesRot. C10.82%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90%Void / Marduk (Caches)CachesRot. C4.42%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%Deimos / Formido (Caches)CachesRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90%Uranus / Portia (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Neptune / Thalassa (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Neptune / Halimede (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Pluto / Charon (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Pluto / Cypress (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Sedna / Rusalka (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Sedna / Phithale (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Void / Stribog (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Kuva Fortress / Dakata (Caches)CachesRot. C3.67%27.2 expected runs · 62 runs for 90%Jupiter / Adrastea (Caches)CachesRot. C1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Jupiter / Carpo (Caches)CachesRot. C1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Saturn / Pallene (Caches)CachesRot. C1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Saturn / Calypso (Caches)CachesRot. C1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Ceres / Thon (Caches)CachesRot. C1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Ceres / Ker (Caches)CachesRot. C1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Mercury / Terminus (Caches)CachesRot. C0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Mercury / Neruda (Caches)CachesRot. C0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Venus / Ishtar (Caches)CachesRot. C0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Mars / Gradivus (Caches)CachesRot. C0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Team AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro ArenaConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro Arena (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant AnnihilationConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%Neptune / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. B0.25%400.0 expected runs · 920 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.