Confidence
Direct sources
Lua / Plato (Caches)CachesRot. C1.29%77.5 expected runs · 178 runs for 90%Jupiter / Adrastea (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Jupiter / Carpo (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Saturn / Pallene (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Saturn / Calypso (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Ceres / Thon (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Ceres / Ker (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.