Confidence
Direct sources
Void / Marduk (Caches)CachesRot. C1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90%Uranus / Portia (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Neptune / Thalassa (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Neptune / Halimede (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Pluto / Charon (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Pluto / Cypress (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Sedna / Rusalka (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Sedna / Phithale (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Void / Stribog (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%Kuva Fortress / Dakata (Caches)CachesRot. C0.50%200.0 expected runs · 460 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 1.01% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.