Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. C25.00%4.0 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. C13.24%7.6 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hVoid / Marduk (Caches)CachesRot. B15.18%6.6 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Lua / Plato (Caches)CachesRot. A12.91%7.7 expected runs · 17 runs for 90%Jupiter / Adrastea (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Jupiter / Carpo (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Pallene (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Saturn / Calypso (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Uranus / Portia (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Neptune / Thalassa (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Neptune / Halimede (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Pluto / Charon (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Pluto / Cypress (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Ceres / Thon (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Ceres / Ker (Caches)CachesRot. B12.65%7.9 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 25% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.