Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A4.72%21.2 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A4.72%21.2 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A3.57%28.0 expected runs · 64 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A3.57%28.0 expected runs · 64 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.5 hUranus / Portia (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Neptune / Thalassa (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Neptune / Halimede (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Pluto / Charon (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Pluto / Cypress (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Sedna / Rusalka (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Sedna / Phithale (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Void / Stribog (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Kuva Fortress / Dakata (Caches)CachesRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Lua / Plato (Caches)CachesRot. C1.29%77.5 expected runs · 178 runs for 90%Void / Marduk (Caches)CachesRot. C1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90%Jupiter / Adrastea (Caches)CachesRot. C1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 4.72% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.