Relic opening
Refinement
Confidence

Direct sources

Kuva Fortress / TamuDisruptionRot. A100.00%1.0 expected runs · 1 runs for 90% · ≈ 3 minKuva Fortress / TamuDisruptionRot. B100.00%1.0 expected runs · 1 runs for 90% · ≈ 3 minKuva Fortress / TamuDisruptionRot. C95.00%1.1 expected runs · 1 runs for 90% · ≈ 3 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C27.59%3.6 expected runs · 8 runs for 90% · ≈ 56 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A23.86%4.2 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C17.39%5.8 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C17.02%5.9 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A12.28%8.1 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A8.86%11.3 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A6.09%16.4 expected runs · 37 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B6.09%16.4 expected runs · 37 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C6.09%16.4 expected runs · 37 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A6.09%16.4 expected runs · 37 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B6.09%16.4 expected runs · 37 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C6.09%16.4 expected runs · 37 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.3 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A5.71%17.5 expected runs · 40 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.7 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A5.71%17.5 expected runs · 40 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A4.73%21.1 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B4.73%21.1 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C4.73%21.1 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A4.73%21.1 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B4.73%21.1 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C4.73%21.1 expected runs · 48 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.6 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A4.44%22.5 expected runs · 51 runs for 90% · ≈ 6.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A4.44%22.5 expected runs · 51 runs for 90% · ≈ 6.0 hDuviri / Endless: Repeated Rewards (Hard)Hard17.26%5.8 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Repeated Rewards (Hard)Hard17.26%5.8 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Repeated Rewards (Hard)Hard17.26%5.8 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Repeated Rewards (Hard)Hard17.26%5.8 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Repeated Rewards (Hard)Hard17.26%5.8 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 1 (Hard)Hard4.43%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3 (Hard)Hard4.43%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 4 (Hard)Hard4.43%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%

Via relics

Requiem IVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Requiem IIVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Requiem IIIVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Requiem IVVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.

We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.

Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.