Confidence
Direct sources
Deimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A13.04%7.7 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A13.04%7.7 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A8.57%11.7 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A8.57%11.7 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.0 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 13.04% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.