Confidence
Direct sources
Zariman / Halako PerimeterExterminate9.76%10.2 expected runs · 23 runs for 90% · ≈ 58 minZariman / Tuvul CommonsVoid CascadeRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 79 minZariman / Everview ArcVoid FloodRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hZariman / The GreenwayMobile Defense9.76%10.2 expected runs · 23 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hZariman / Zariman · Nivel 60-65BountyRot. C6.78%14.7 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.9 hZariman / Oro WorksVoid ArmageddonRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 9.76% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.