Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C22.22%4.5 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A16.11%6.2 expected runs · 14 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A14.04%7.1 expected runs · 16 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A10.13%9.9 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C8.70%11.5 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.0 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C8.51%11.8 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.0 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 22.22% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.