Confidence
Direct sources
Neptune / Arva VectorSkirmishRot. C17.02%5.9 expected runs · 13 runs for 90%Neptune / Mammon's ProspectSkirmishRot. B13.64%7.3 expected runs · 16 runs for 90%Neptune / Enkidu Ice DriftsSkirmishRot. C12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90%Neptune / Brom ClusterSkirmishRot. C8.00%12.5 expected runs · 28 runs for 90%Neptune / Nu-Gua MinesSkirmish7.06%14.2 expected runs · 32 runs for 90%Neptune / Sovereign GraspSkirmish7.06%14.2 expected runs · 32 runs for 90%Saturn / Mordo ClusterSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Saturn / Kasio's RestSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Saturn / Nodo GapSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Saturn / Lupal PassSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Saturn / Vand ClusterSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 17.02% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.