Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Luckless ExpanseSkirmishRot. B17.65%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90%Venus / Falling GlorySkirmishRot. B17.65%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90%Venus / Vesper StraitSkirmishRot. B13.64%7.3 expected runs · 16 runs for 90%Venus / Orvin-HaarcSkirmishRot. C8.00%12.5 expected runs · 28 runs for 90%Venus / Bifrost EchoSkirmish7.32%13.7 expected runs · 31 runs for 90%Venus / Beacon Shield RingSkirmish7.32%13.7 expected runs · 31 runs for 90%Earth / Sover StraitSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Earth / Iota TempleSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Earth / Ogal ClusterSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Earth / Korm's BeltSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Earth / Bendar ClusterSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 17.65% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.