Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minZariman / Tuvul CommonsVoid CascadeRot. C16.00%6.3 expected runs · 14 runs for 90% · ≈ 44 minZariman / Everview ArcVoid FloodRot. C16.00%6.3 expected runs · 14 runs for 90% · ≈ 56 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. B18.42%5.4 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. B14.81%6.8 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. B14.81%6.8 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. B10.29%9.7 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. B9.30%10.8 expected runs · 24 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. B8.99%11.1 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. B8.79%11.4 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. B7.95%12.6 expected runs · 28 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.3 hZariman / Oro WorksVoid ArmageddonRot. C16.00%6.3 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 33.33% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.