Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C8.16%12.3 expected runs · 28 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C8.16%12.3 expected runs · 28 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.3 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C5.41%18.5 expected runs · 42 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C5.41%18.5 expected runs · 42 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.9 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 8.16% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.