Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / MalvaSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / GabiiSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 12.6 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 14.2 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 15.8 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 19.1 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 21.4 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 23.8 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 31.9 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 35.9 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 39.9 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.