Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / MalvaSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / GabiiSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 12.6 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 14.2 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 15.8 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 21.4 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 11.28% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.