Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A46.00%2.2 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B46.00%2.2 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C46.00%2.2 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A19.33%5.2 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B19.33%5.2 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C19.33%5.2 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 min
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 46% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.