Confidence
Direct sources
Ceres / SeimeniDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 31.9 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 35.9 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 39.9 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. C0.40%250.0 expected runs · 575 runs for 90% · ≈ 43.9 hDuviri / Endless: Tier 4Normal1.49%67.1 expected runs · 154 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 6Normal1.03%97.1 expected runs · 223 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 1.49% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.