Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A18.40%5.4 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B18.40%5.4 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C18.40%5.4 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A8.00%12.5 expected runs · 28 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.3 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B8.00%12.5 expected runs · 28 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.3 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C8.00%12.5 expected runs · 28 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.3 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A7.73%12.9 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.4 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B7.73%12.9 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.4 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C7.73%12.9 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.4 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 18.4% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.