Confidence

Direct sources

Earth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B30.56%3.3 expected runs · 7 runs for 90% · ≈ 49 minNeptune / DespinaExcavationRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 62 minPluto / HieraconExcavationRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 62 minEuropa / CholistanExcavationRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 62 minKuva Fortress / PagoSpyRot. A13.33%7.5 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 68 minUranus / RosalindSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hNeptune / NereidSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPluto / OceanumSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / CyathSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / GnathosSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSedna / TikolosheSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSedna / KelpieSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hJupiter / IoDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hUranus / OpheliaSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hUranus / CupidSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hUranus / AssurSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hNeptune / KelashinSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hPluto / PalusSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEris / HymenoSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEris / NimusSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSedna / SelkieSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSedna / ScyllaSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSedna / YemajaSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSedna / AmarnaSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hLua / TychoSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hKuva Fortress / TaveuniSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSaturn / HeleneDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.1 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B7.52%13.3 expected runs · 30 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.6 hSedna / CamenaeDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.8 hEuropa / PaimonDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.8 hUranus / MirandaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / BiancaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / StephanoDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hNeptune / ProteusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hPluto / Outer TerminusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / Kala-AzarDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / IxodesDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hLua / StöFlerDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hKuva Fortress / NabukDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hSedna / HydronDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 8.4 hMercury / ElionCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hVenus / VeneraCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEarth / MantleCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hMars / AraCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hMars / QuirinusCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hJupiter / AnankeCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hSaturn / PhoebeCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hSaturn / CassiniCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hUranus / ArielCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hUranus / TrinculoCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hNeptune / GalateaCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPluto / HydraCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPluto / CorbCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hCeres / LexCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEris / CosisCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEris / IsosCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / AbaddonCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / BelethCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPhobos / LimtocCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPhobos / SkyreshCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPhobos / ToddCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hLua / CopernicusCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEris / OestrusInfested SalvageRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Phobos / OpikRushRot. C2.01%49.8 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 1Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%

We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.

Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.