Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A30.56%3.3 expected runs · 7 runs for 90% · ≈ 49 minLua / PavlovSpyRot. B7.49%13.4 expected runs · 30 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hUranus / MirandaDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hUranus / BiancaDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hUranus / StephanoDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hNeptune / ProteusDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hPluto / Outer TerminusDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hEris / Kala-AzarDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hEris / IxodesDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hLua / StöFlerDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hKuva Fortress / NabukDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hJupiter / AmaltheaSpyRot. B5.56%18.0 expected runs · 41 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hSedna / HydronDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A7.52%13.3 expected runs · 30 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.6 hEris / OestrusInfested SalvageRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 30.56% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.