Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / RosalindSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minNeptune / NereidSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPluto / OceanumSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minEris / CyathSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minEris / GnathosSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minSedna / TikolosheSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minSedna / KelpieSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minKuva Fortress / PagoSpyRot. A13.33%7.5 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 68 minDuviri / Endless: Tier 4Normal1.49%67.1 expected runs · 154 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 6Normal1.03%97.1 expected runs · 223 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 14.29% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.