Confidence
Direct sources
Saturn / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Team AnnihilationConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / AnnihilationConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro ArenaConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Lunaro Arena (Extra)ConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Cephalon Capture (Extra)ConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Team Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant AnnihilationConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Saturn / Variant Annihilation (Extra)ConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%Neptune / Cephalon CaptureConclaveRot. A2.48%40.3 expected runs · 92 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.