Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A37.50%2.7 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. B37.50%2.7 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C37.50%2.7 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. B20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A17.65%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. B17.65%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C17.65%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 min
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 37.5% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.