Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / KilikenExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minEarth / EverestExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minEarth / TikalExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minMars / AugustusExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minMercury / SuiseiSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVenus / VesperSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVenus / UndaSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEarth / CambriaSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMars / ArvalSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / HapkeSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPhobos / GrildrigSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPhobos / ShklovskySpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMercury / ApollodorusSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hVenus / V PrimeSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hVenus / MalvaSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hMars / ArcadiaSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 8.6% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.