Relic opening
Refinement
Confidence

Direct sources

Saturn / Mordo ClusterSkirmish5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Saturn / Kasio's RestSkirmish5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Saturn / Nodo GapSkirmish5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Saturn / Lupal PassSkirmish5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Saturn / Vand ClusterSkirmish5.50%18.2 expected runs · 41 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / FlexaSkirmish5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / H-2 CloudSkirmish5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / R-9 CloudSkirmish5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Nsu GridSkirmish5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 1 (Hard)Hard4.43%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3 (Hard)Hard4.43%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 4 (Hard)Hard4.43%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%Venus / Orvin-HaarcSkirmishRot. A3.33%30.0 expected runs · 68 runs for 90%Neptune / Brom ClusterSkirmishRot. A3.33%30.0 expected runs · 68 runs for 90%Pluto / Peregrine AxisSkirmishRot. A3.33%30.0 expected runs · 68 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Sabmir CloudSkirmishRot. A3.33%30.0 expected runs · 68 runs for 90%Pluto / Obol CrossingSkirmishRot. B3.03%33.0 expected runs · 75 runs for 90%Pluto / Fenton's FieldSkirmishRot. B3.03%33.0 expected runs · 75 runs for 90%Neptune / Enkidu Ice DriftsSkirmishRot. B2.86%35.0 expected runs · 80 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Arc SilverSkirmishRot. B2.86%35.0 expected runs · 80 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Arc SilverSkirmishRot. C2.86%35.0 expected runs · 80 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Lu-YanSkirmishRot. B2.86%35.0 expected runs · 80 runs for 90%Pluto / Obol CrossingSkirmishRot. C2.44%41.0 expected runs · 94 runs for 90%Neptune / Arva VectorSkirmishRot. B2.33%42.9 expected runs · 98 runs for 90%Neptune / Arva VectorSkirmishRot. C2.13%46.9 expected runs · 107 runs for 90%Neptune / Enkidu Ice DriftsSkirmishRot. C2.08%48.1 expected runs · 110 runs for 90%Pluto / Fenton's FieldSkirmishRot. C2.08%48.1 expected runs · 110 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Lu-YanSkirmishRot. C2.08%48.1 expected runs · 110 runs for 90%Pluto / Seven SirensSkirmish1.20%83.3 expected runs · 191 runs for 90%Pluto / Profit MarginSkirmish1.20%83.3 expected runs · 191 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / CalabashSkirmish1.20%83.3 expected runs · 191 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / NuminaSkirmish1.20%83.3 expected runs · 191 runs for 90%Neptune / Nu-Gua MinesSkirmish1.18%84.7 expected runs · 194 runs for 90%Neptune / Sovereign GraspSkirmish1.18%84.7 expected runs · 194 runs for 90%Earth / Sover StraitSkirmish1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Earth / Iota TempleSkirmish1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Earth / Ogal ClusterSkirmish1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Earth / Korm's BeltSkirmish1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%Earth / Bendar ClusterSkirmish1.00%100.0 expected runs · 230 runs for 90%

Via relics

Requiem IVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Requiem IIVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Requiem IIIVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Requiem IVVaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.

We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.

Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.