Confidence
Direct sources
Mercury / SuiseiSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minVenus / VesperSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minVenus / UndaSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minEarth / CambriaSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minMars / ArvalSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minCeres / HapkeSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPhobos / GrildrigSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPhobos / ShklovskySpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minDuviri / Endless: Tier 4Normal1.49%67.1 expected runs · 154 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 6Normal1.03%97.1 expected runs · 223 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.