Confidence
Direct sources
Jupiter / CallistoInterceptionRot. B7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hSaturn / RheaInterceptionRot. B7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hUranus / UmbrielInterceptionRot. B7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hEuropa / OseInterceptionRot. B7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hLua / PavlovSpyRot. B7.49%13.4 expected runs · 30 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hMercury / LaresDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / EgeriaDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / DrunloDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / GulliverDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hUranus / MirandaDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hUranus / BiancaDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 11.06% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.