Confidence
Direct sources
Ceres / SeimeniDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hMercury / LaresDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / EgeriaDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / DrunloDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / GulliverDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hJupiter / IoDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSaturn / HeleneDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.1 hSedna / CamenaeDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.8 hEuropa / PaimonDefenseRot. C4.51%22.2 expected runs · 50 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.8 hUranus / MirandaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / BiancaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / StephanoDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hNeptune / ProteusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hPluto / Outer TerminusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / Kala-AzarDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / IxodesDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hLua / StöFlerDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hKuva Fortress / NabukDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hSedna / HydronDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 8.4 hPhobos / OpikRushRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 4Normal1.49%67.1 expected runs · 154 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 6Normal1.03%97.1 expected runs · 223 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.