Confidence
Direct sources
Ceres / SeimeniDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hMercury / LaresDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / OpikRushRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 8.43% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.