Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / MalvaSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMars / WahibaSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hJupiter / CameriaSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSaturn / PiscinasSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / GabiiSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPhobos / ZeugmaSurvivalRot. C11.28%8.9 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 19.1 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 21.4 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 23.8 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. B0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 26.2 hPhobos / MemphisDefectionRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 4Normal1.49%67.1 expected runs · 154 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 6Normal1.03%97.1 expected runs · 223 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 15% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.