Confidence
Direct sources
Mercury / ElionCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minVenus / VeneraCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minEarth / MantleCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minMars / AraCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minMars / QuirinusCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minJupiter / AnankeCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minSaturn / PhoebeCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minSaturn / CassiniCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minUranus / ArielCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minUranus / TrinculoCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minNeptune / GalateaCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minPluto / HydraCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minPluto / CorbCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minCeres / LexCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minEris / CosisCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 minEris / IsosCapture10.84%9.2 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 32 min
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 25.29% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.