Confidence
Direct sources
Europa / LillithExcavationRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 62 minEuropa / ValeforExcavationRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 62 minMars / WahibaSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hJupiter / ElaraSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hJupiter / CameriaSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSaturn / TitanSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSaturn / PiscinasSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hCeres / DracoSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEuropa / ZaganSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hPhobos / ZeugmaSurvivalRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hDuviri / Endless: Tier 1Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 7.52% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.