WarframeAlchemyLab ES
Relic opening
Refinement
Confidence

Via relics

Axi S16Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi T12Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith D7Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith O4Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso T8Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo D9Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo P6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Vanguard E1Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.

We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.

Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.