Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. B15.18%6.6 expected runs · 14 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.6 hJupiter / AmaltheaSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSaturn / DioneSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSaturn / AegaeonSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / BodeSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEuropa / ValacSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hMercury / LaresDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / EgeriaDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPhobos / DrunloDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPhobos / GulliverDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 12.6 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 14.2 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 15.8 hMercury / ElionCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hVenus / VeneraCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEarth / MantleCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hMars / AraCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hMars / QuirinusCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hJupiter / AnankeCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hSaturn / PhoebeCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hSaturn / CassiniCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hUranus / ArielCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hUranus / TrinculoCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hNeptune / GalateaCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPluto / HydraCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPluto / CorbCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hCeres / LexCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEris / CosisCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEris / IsosCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / AbaddonCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hEuropa / BelethCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPhobos / LimtocCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPhobos / SkyreshCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hPhobos / ToddCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hLua / CopernicusCapture0.34%294.1 expected runs · 677 runs for 90% · ≈ 16.9 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. A1.01%99.0 expected runs · 227 runs for 90% · ≈ 17.3 hPhobos / OpikRushRot. B8.43%11.9 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Phobos / OpikRushRot. A2.01%49.8 expected runs · 114 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.