Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / RosalindSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minNeptune / NereidSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPluto / OceanumSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minEris / CyathSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minEris / GnathosSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minSedna / TikolosheSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minSedna / KelpieSpyRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minKuva Fortress / PagoSpyRot. A13.33%7.5 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 68 minUranus / RosalindSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hNeptune / NereidSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPluto / OceanumSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / CyathSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / GnathosSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSedna / TikolosheSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSedna / KelpieSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hDuviri / Endless: Tier 1Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.