Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A30.56%3.3 expected runs · 7 runs for 90% · ≈ 49 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C30.56%3.3 expected runs · 7 runs for 90% · ≈ 49 minJupiter / IoDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hSaturn / HeleneDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.3 hJupiter / AmaltheaSpyRot. B5.56%18.0 expected runs · 41 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hSaturn / DioneSpyRot. B5.56%18.0 expected runs · 41 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hSaturn / AegaeonSpyRot. B5.56%18.0 expected runs · 41 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hCeres / BodeSpyRot. B5.56%18.0 expected runs · 41 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hEuropa / ValacSpyRot. B5.56%18.0 expected runs · 41 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hSedna / CamenaeDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEuropa / PaimonDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A7.52%13.3 expected runs · 30 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C7.52%13.3 expected runs · 30 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. C7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.6 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 11.9 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 30.56% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.