Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / KilikenExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / EverestExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / TikalExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hMars / AugustusExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hNeptune / DespinaExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPluto / HieraconExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hKuva Fortress / TaveuniSurvivalRot. C4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90% · ≈ 4.8 hMercury / ApollodorusSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hVenus / V PrimeSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hMars / ArcadiaSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hJupiter / ElaraSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hSaturn / TitanSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hUranus / OpheliaSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hUranus / CupidSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hPluto / PalusSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hCeres / DracoSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 4% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.