Confidence
Direct sources
Lua / PavlovSpyRot. A12.18%8.2 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 72 minJupiter / AmaltheaSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSaturn / DioneSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSaturn / AegaeonSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / BodeSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEuropa / ValacSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 8.7 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 9.8 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 10.8 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 11.9 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 11.9 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 11.9 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 11.9 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 11.9 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90% · ≈ 11.9 hPhobos / OpikRushRot. B1.47%68.0 expected runs · 156 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 12.18% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.