Confidence
Direct sources
Veil Proxima / Calabash (Caches)CachesRot. A8.70%11.5 expected runs · 26 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Numina (Caches)CachesRot. A8.70%11.5 expected runs · 26 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Arc Silver (Caches)CachesRot. A8.70%11.5 expected runs · 26 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Erato (Caches)CachesRot. A8.70%11.5 expected runs · 26 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Lu-Yan (Caches)CachesRot. A8.70%11.5 expected runs · 26 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Sabmir Cloud (Caches)CachesRot. A8.70%11.5 expected runs · 26 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Flexa (Caches)CachesRot. A4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / H-2 Cloud (Caches)CachesRot. A4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / R-9 Cloud (Caches)CachesRot. A4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Nsu Grid (Caches)CachesRot. A4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 8.7% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.