WarframeAlchemyLab ES
Relic opening
Refinement
Confidence

Via relics

Meso X159.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Best relic source: Mars / Olympus (Disruption · Rot. C · 14.3%) → 12 runs + 2 expected opens · ≈ 34 min expected total time
Axi A10Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi G15Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith A10Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith K6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith S1Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith S16Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith S7Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso B6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso F5Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso G6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso S15Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso S2Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso S7Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso T4Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo C3Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo G1Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo G4Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo K4Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo N23Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo R2Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo R3Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.

We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.

Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.