Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / UrDisruptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minSedna / KappaDisruptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minLua / ApolloDisruptionRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 41 minUranus / UrDisruptionRot. C13.56%7.4 expected runs · 16 runs for 90% · ≈ 43 minJupiter / CallistoInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minSaturn / RheaInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minUranus / UmbrielInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minEuropa / OseInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minVoid / MithraInterceptionRot. B12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 66 minEris / ZabalaSurvivalRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 75 minVoid / MotSurvivalRot. B12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hDeimos / TerroremSurvivalRot. B12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hHöllvania / Hell-Scrub: ScaldraSurvivalRot. C11.92%8.4 expected runs · 19 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.6 hHöllvania / Hell-Scrub: TechrotSurvivalRot. C11.92%8.4 expected runs · 19 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.6 hMars / WahibaSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hHöllvania / Legacyte HarvestLegacyte HarvestRot. C15.86%6.3 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 15.86% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.