Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / UrDisruptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minSedna / KappaDisruptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minLua / ApolloDisruptionRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 41 minUranus / UrDisruptionRot. C13.56%7.4 expected runs · 16 runs for 90% · ≈ 43 minJupiter / CallistoInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minSaturn / RheaInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minUranus / UmbrielInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minEuropa / OseInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minVoid / MithraInterceptionRot. B12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 66 minEris / ZabalaSurvivalRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 75 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A18.45%5.4 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A17.92%5.6 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVoid / MotSurvivalRot. B12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hDeimos / TerroremSurvivalRot. B12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-60BountyRot. C17.14%5.8 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A13.57%7.4 expected runs · 16 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 18.45% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.