Confidence
Direct sources
Neptune / Arva Vector (Caches)CachesRot. B6.06%16.5 expected runs · 37 runs for 90%Neptune / Nu-Gua Mines (Caches)CachesRot. B6.06%16.5 expected runs · 37 runs for 90%Neptune / Enkidu Ice Drifts (Caches)CachesRot. B6.06%16.5 expected runs · 37 runs for 90%Neptune / Mammon's Prospect (Caches)CachesRot. B6.06%16.5 expected runs · 37 runs for 90%Neptune / Sovereign Grasp (Caches)CachesRot. B6.06%16.5 expected runs · 37 runs for 90%Neptune / Brom Cluster (Caches)CachesRot. B6.06%16.5 expected runs · 37 runs for 90%Neptune / Arva VectorSkirmishRot. B4.65%21.5 expected runs · 49 runs for 90%Neptune / Arva VectorSkirmishRot. C4.26%23.5 expected runs · 53 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 6.06% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.