Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. B33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. C33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. B33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. C33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A18.92%5.3 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. B18.92%5.3 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. C18.92%5.3 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A18.92%5.3 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. B18.92%5.3 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. C18.92%5.3 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A17.50%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. B17.50%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. C17.50%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A17.50%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 min
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 33.33% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.