Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A25.00%4.0 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A25.00%4.0 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 5-15BountyRot. A14.50%6.9 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A13.24%7.6 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 30% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.