Confidence
Direct sources
Eris / Candiru (Caches)CachesRot. B15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Lepis (Caches)CachesRot. B15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Psoro (Caches)CachesRot. B15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Viver (Caches)CachesRot. B15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Naeglar (Caches)CachesRot. B15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Deimos / Formido (Caches)CachesRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.