Confidence
Direct sources
Mars / OlympusDisruptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 38 minUranus / UrDisruptionRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minSedna / KappaDisruptionRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minJupiter / IoDefenseRot. A12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minMercury / OdinInterceptionRot. C12.18%8.2 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 66 minVenus / CythereanInterceptionRot. C12.18%8.2 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 66 minEarth / GaiaInterceptionRot. C12.18%8.2 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 66 minMars / AlatorInterceptionRot. C12.18%8.2 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 66 minCeres / CinxiaInterceptionRot. C12.18%8.2 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 66 minSaturn / HeleneDefenseRot. A12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 68 minSedna / CamenaeDefenseRot. A12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 83 minEuropa / PaimonDefenseRot. A12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 83 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hHöllvania / Solstice SquareDefenseRot. A9.71%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 30-40BountyRot. A12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hHöllvania / Legacyte HarvestLegacyte HarvestRot. A10.17%9.8 expected runs · 22 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 15% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.